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Surprised by the Gambler’s and Hot Hand Fallacies? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers

Contenido

Adam Sanjurjo, del Departamento de Fundamentos de Análisis Económico de la Universidad de Alicante y Joshua Miller, de la Universidad de Bocconi (Milán), han demostrado que, en contraste con las anteriores conclusiones, existe una evidencia de que 'la mano caliente' es real.
Artículo en Wall Street Journal: http://ow.ly/W7por

Abstract: We find a subtle but substantial bias in a standard measure of the conditional dependence of present outcomes on streaks of past outcomes in sequential data. The mechanism is a form of selection bias, which leads the empirical probability (i.e. relative frequency) to underestimate the true probability of a given outcome, when conditioning on prior outcomes of the same kind. The biased measure has been used prominently in the literature that investigates incorrect beliefs in sequential decision making—most notably the Gambler’s Fallacy and the Hot Hand Fallacy. Upon correcting for the bias, the conclusions of some prominent studies in the literature are reversed. The bias also provides a structural explanation of why the belief in the law of small numbers persists, as repeated experience with finite sequences can only reinforce these beliefs, on average.

Archivos / Enlaces

Datos generales

Fecha publicación:
20/11/2015
Autor:
Joshua B. Miller and Adam Sanjurjo
Categoría:
Académico
Línea de investigación:
Académico y técnico
Tipo de documento:
Estudio académico

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